Vegas has the Heat as favorites, as the Heat are -175 while the Mavericks are +155. This takes into account everything including momentum, home court advantage, and the fact that the Heat are just a lot better. Now it may seem obvious to you that I love the Heat and I can't wait for them to win it all. The main reason for this is due to how much America hates them. I simply could not resist adopting a team that I knew was one of the most hated in sports. Also, I was a big fan of Lebron's decision and I only wish that one day I too will get to make a public decision on television that will be watched by nearly as many people. But with that said, I will analyze this series with a neutral perspective and I will attempt to pretend that Dallas has a faint chance in hell of winning it all.
Most people analyze a series by looking at key matchups, key players, and regular season results. These people are idiots. As the Bulls series indicated, regular season matchups have no bearing on the playoffs. They are two completely different things. Also, match-ups can be adjusted and both teams obviously have pretty good fucking players if they made it to the NBA finals. No, I will adopt a new method to analyze these series. I will predict a winner based on 5 categories: Desire to Win, Coaching, Talent, Momentum, Clutch Factor. And now here we go:
1: Desire to Win
Everyone seems to think the Mavericks have more desire to win because of how old they are. Dirk Nowitzki is 32. Jason Kidd is 38. Jason Terry is 33. A portrait of the Dallas Mavericks would basically look like this:
Just because they have been in the league for a long time does not mean they are necessarily going to use this desire to propel themselves to get a championship. Do you think Lebron and Wade are sitting around Miami thinking that they don't really want to win the championship, and that they'd be best off just giving it to the Mavericks. They did not deal with all the national hate and media pressure to make it to the finals to simply hand the Larry O'Brien trophy over to the Mavericks who are older, sweeter, and more beloved by America. Simply put, they do not give a shit that this may be Dirk's last year with two healthy legs. They also do not care that Jason Kidd will probably use his time in Miami to locate a nice nursing home. It's win it all or bust for the Heat. The pressure has been on them all year, and it's not about to ease off now. The Mavericks are to America what the Celtics were a couple of weeks ago and what the Bulls were recently: a last ditch hope to prevent the Evil King from getting what he wants.
ADVANTAGE: Miami
2: Coaching
Here's a trick question: what job can you get that requires little intelligence and little effort, but pays you 9 figures a year? Answer: the Coach of the Miami Heat
This isn't necessarily a shot at Erik Spoelstra, but truth is he is not nearly qualified enough to coach a team of three superstars. Just look at some of the other coaches in the league, and then tell me that you really expect Lebron James to take this guy seriously. Truth is, Erik spends far too much time worrying about Pat Riley's facial expressions to be able to actually coach this team. After all, everyone knows what the rumors are. Pat Riley, one of the greatest coaches ever, is literally hovering right over Mr. Spoelstra. Rest assured, if the Heat do not win it all this year, Pat Riley's coming to take over. In fact, Erik is so sure of this fact that he shits himself out of fear every time there is a frown on his bosses face. He then attempts to overcompensate for this by frantically waving his arms around like a drunk crossing guard. Once again though, this is not his fault. He was brought onto this team to coach Dwayne Wade and a bunch of scrubs. He inherited a bunch of superstars and he has no idea what he's still doing behind the bench. Only thing he can seem to focus on is Pat Riley's scowl. That is why it doesn't matter if the Mavericks were being coached by Bobo the Clown. I'd still give them the advantage.
ADVANTAGE: Dallas
3: Talent
A few months ago people were referring to the Heat as two and a half men. This was due to the fact that the third member of the "Big Three" (the effeminate one) was playing less than stellar basketball. But now Bosh has shown the whole world that he is for real, and he is no joke. He played excellent against the Chicago Bulls, averaging approximately 25 points per game while making Boozer look like a complete joke. When the Big 3 are clicking, there is very little that any team can do to stop them. Dirk is going to need to clone himself a couple of times in order for the Mavericks to be able to match the Heat offensively. And let's not act as if the Mavericks are some superior defensive team that can shut down these superstars. They allowed the Russell "I'm the Greatest-of-all-Time" Westbrook led Thunder to score over 100 points not once, not twice, but three times. If they allowed that excuse of an offense to go crazy, then we may be treated to historic scoring numbers these next few games. If your a betting person, I suggest taking the over EACH AND EVERY TIME.
ADVANTAGE: Miami
4: Momentum
This one was actually pretty tough to examine. The Mavericks swept the defending champions. They won their last 4 games on the road. How then can I possibly use my personal bias to twist this in Miami's favor. Simple. Think back to the Mavericks Trail Blazers series. Remember Game 4? If you don't, here's a reminder:
Brandon Roy was barely playing then, and he pulled off an incredible comeback that evened the series at 2 apiece. This was not the All-Star Brandon Roy, but rather the "I am still trying to recover from surgery and from the fact that Coach hates me" Brandon Roy that completely destroyed the Dallas Mavericks. If the Mavericks cannot stopped one-legged Roy, just imagine what is going to happen when Dwayne Wade goes off on them. Dwayne Wade is 5x better than Roy this year, especially since he is fully healthy. The Mavs team looked lost out there, and they had nobody that could stop Roy. They were lucky that they managed to win the next game and ultimately win the series in 6, because Game 4 could have easily spelled doom for the Mavericks. The Mavericks then went on to sweep the Lakers and destroy the Thunder in 5. It is during the Lakers series that they picked up their momentum, not during the entire playoffs. The Heat on the other hand, have been steamrolling through the ENTIRE playoffs. Not just for the last 2 series, but from the very beginning.
ADVANTAGE: Miami
5: Clutch Factor
This one is very simple. The Heat have two players who have shown throughout these playoffs that they can step up during clutch situations and win big games: Dwayne Wade and Lebron James. The Mavericks have Dirk. 2>1. Heat win.
ADVANTAGE: Miami
PREDICTION: Miami in 6
Here is how it will go:
Dallas wins Game 1 in Miami
Miami wins Game 2 in Miami
Miami wins Game 3 in Dallas
Dallas wins Game 4 in Dallas
Miami wins Game 5 in Dallas
Miami wins it all in Game 6 in Miami.
That is how it will go. Do not ask me why. Just like Howard Camping, I see things that the rest of you people don't. I know I probably pissed off a lot of Mav fans/Anti-Lebron fans. I do not really care. I do encourage you to post comments on the blog so that we can get a good debate going. You can also send me death threats via email if that makes you feel better, but chances are I won't respond. My email is therealdivine@gmail.com
Anyway, thanks for reading.
Oh yeah, happy Memorial Day everyone!
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